NEM electricity demand forecasts

AEMO has produced electricity demand forecasts for the National Electricity Market (NEM) since 2012.

Prior to that, forecasts were provided by the Transmission Network Service Providers for each NEM region and published as part of the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).

From 2012 to 2016, AEMO published its demand forecasts as the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR). These forecasts can be found on the Previous National Electricity Forecasting Report page.

In 2017, AEMO published its demand forecasts as the Electricity Forecasting Insights. These forecasts were updated in March 2018.

For the 2017 ESOO, updated demand forecasts were produced and published as part of that document. In 2018 and 2019 the demand forecasts were similarly published as part of the ESOO.

Since 2015, demand forecasts have been uploaded to AEMO’s Forecasting Data Portal. Forecasts are provided for operational consumption and maximum demand (and, since 2016, minimum demand). For forecast definitions, see this document:

In February 2019, AEMO published its Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper (Methodology Paper), which explains the data sources and methodologies used to forecast annual consumption, and maximum and minimum demand in the NEM.

Forecast accuracy is assessed for the forecasts used in the Electricity Statement of Opportunities. Visit the Forecasting accuracy reporting page for more information.