2020-21 Planning and Forecasting Consultation on Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios

18/02/2021
Market National Electricity Market
StageFinal Report
ConvenorAEMO NEM
Initiated11/12/2020
Accepting submissions?No

Matter under consultation

AEMO delivers a range of forecasting and planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM), including the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), and the Integrated System Plan (ISP). This consultation relates to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios that AEMO proposes to use in its 2021-22 forecasting and planning activities, including the 2022 ISP. 

AEMO has prepared an Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report (IASR), and an accompanying Inputs and Assumptions workbook which contains the proposed key scenario data. The IASR and workbook include (but are not limited to) detail on:

  • The set of new scenarios that have been developed in conjunction with stakeholders
  • The CSIRO’s GenCost 2020-21 draft, providing an annual update to generation technology costs
  • Updated inputs and assumptions, or details on update processes. 

Supporting materials for 2021 (including for the 2022 ISP)

Consultation on revised draft scenarios

On 3 March 2021, AEMO held a public workshop on submissions to the Draft IASR, including the presentation of a revised set of draft scenarios, based on stakeholder feedback. The new scenarios were presented on slides 20-24 of the workshop slide pack. A recording of the workshop was made and is available below. Stakeholders were given until 17 March to make written submissions on the revised draft scenarios.

Consultation process 

The National Electricity Rules require AEMO to develop, consult and publish the IASR in accordance with the Australian Energy Regulator’s (AER’s) Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines. Under these Guidelines, AEMO is required to follow a “single stage process” which requires that the publication of this Draft IASR follows from meetings with Consulted Persons.

In developing the Draft IASR and the proposed scenarios, AEMO has sought stakeholder input and feedback through a number of workshops and webinars. The below table provides further detail on the key dates of this formal consultation, framed within our stakeholder engagement to date.

For further information, see the Opportunities for Engagement and FRG webpages.

Consultation steps Date
Hydrogen in the 2021 GSOO Workshop 18 September 2020
Forecasting and Planning Scenarios Workshop 14 October 2020
Forecasting and Planning Scenarios Webinar 22 October 2020
Forecasting and Planning IASR - Scenarios Webinar 11 November 2020
Forecasting and Planning IASR Workshop 20 November 2020
Publication of the draft IASR and call for stakeholder submissions 11 December 2020
Submissions due on Draft IASR 1 February 2021
Webinar on submissions and revised scenarios 3 March 2021
Submissions on revised scenarios close 17 March 2021
Publication of the final IASR 30 July 2021
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