NEM Electricity Demand Forecasts
AEMO has produced electricity demand forecasts for the National Electricity Market (NEM) since 2012
Prior to that, forecasts were provided by the Transmission Network Service Providers for each NEM region and published as part of the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).
From 2012 to 2016, AEMO published its demand forecasts as the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR). These forecasts can be found on the Previous National Electricity Forecasting Report page.
In 2017, AEMO published its demand forecasts as the Electricity Forecasting Insights. These forecasts were updated in March 2018.
Since 2015, demand forecasts have been uploaded to AEMO’s Forecasting Data Portal. Forecasts are provided for operational consumption and maximum demand (and, since 2016, minimum demand). For forecast definitions, see this Operational Consumption definition document (166 KB, pdf).
The table below lists the most recent electricity demand forecasts and their publication date.
Publication date Forecast publication name August 2019 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – demand forecast February 2019 2018 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – Update to auxiliary load forecasts (357 KB, pdf)
August 2018 2018 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – demand forecast
2018 Electricity Forecasting Insights – March 2018 update
2017 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – demand forecast
2017 Electricity Forecasting Insights
2016 National Electricity Forecasting Report - Update (393 KB, pdf)
2016 National Electricity Forecasting report - EV Insights (2.37 MB, pdf)
2016 National Electricity Forecasting report (3.56 MB, pdf)
In February 2019, AEMO published its Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper (Methodology Paper), which explains the data sources and methodologies used to forecast annual consumption, and maximum and minimum demand in the NEM.
- Download The Methodology Paper (2.26 MB, pdf)
Forecast accuracy is assessed for the forecasts used in the Electricity Statement of Opportunities.
- Visit the Forecasting Accuracy Reporting page for more information.