Draft 2024 ISP Consultation

15/12/2023
Market National Electricity Market
StageDraft Report
ConvenorAEMO NEM
Initiated15/12/2023
Accepting submissions?Yes
Submissions close16/02/2024

Timeline

  • Publication of the Draft 2024 ISP
    15 December 2023
  • Draft 2024 ISP publication webinar
    20 December 2023
  • 2024 ISP consumer advocate capacity building webinar
    30 January 2024
  • Consumer advocate verbal feedback
    15 February 2024
  • Submissions due on Draft 2024 ISP
    16 February 2024
  • Draft 2024 ISP submissions reflection webinar
    2 April 2024
  • Final 2024 ISP published
    28 June 2024

Overview

The 2024 ISP provides a comprehensive roadmap for the National Electricity Market. It draws on extensive stakeholder engagement on the methodology and inputs, assumptions and scenarios, and power system expertise to develop a roadmap that optimises consumer benefits through a transition period of great complexity and uncertainty.

The ISP and its optimal development path support Australia’s highly complex and rapid energy transformation towards net zero emissions, enabling low-cost renewable energy and essential transmission to provide consumers with reliable, and secure and affordable power. It serves the regulatory purpose of identifying actionable and future ISP projects, as well as the broader purposes of informing market participants, investors, policy decision makers and consumers.

Submissions on the Draft 2024 ISP are due to ISP@AEMO.com.au by 16 February 2024. Please note that submissions will be published, other than confidential material, as per AEMO’s Consultation submission guidelines.

Draft 2024 ISP data files

Demand trace data

Regional files

The files below provide draft regional demand traces, by components for each NEM region for both 10% and 50% probability of exceedance (POE) maximum demands and for 13 different reference years (2011-12 till 2023-24) by scenario.

Note that electricity demand for the production of both domestic and export hydrogen is not included in any of the components below for any scenario. Demand associated with hydrogen production is modelled separately according to the approach outlined in AEMO’s methodologies and IASR.

Each of the zipped regional files includes:

  • OPSO: Contains half-hourly regional demand traces for operational demand (demand after the impact of rooftop PV and PVNSG). Note that operational demand on the forecasting portal includes demand from EVVPP which is not included in this trace component.
  • OPSO_PVLITE: Contains half-hourly regional demand traces for operational demand (demand before the impact of rooftop PV and PVNSG)
  • OPSO_MODELLING: Version of demand used in AEMO’s market modelling. OPSO_MODELLING = OPSO – ICL + EVVPP.
  • PV: Contains half hourly regional generation traces for rooftop PV
  • PV_TOT: Contains half hourly regional generation traces for all embedded PV, including rooftop PV and PVNSG. Generation from PVNSG can be found as PV_NSG = PV_TOT – PV.
  • EV: Contains half hourly regional aggregate electric vehicle charging
  • ESS: Contains half hourly regional aggregate customer installed battery charging/discharging. ESS is capturing the net impact of battery storages (charge – discharge). To remove ESS from OPSO you would subtract it: OPSO - ESS
  • VTOH: Contains half hourly regional aggregate discharging from electric vehicles to homes (only used in the Step change scenario).
  • EVVPP: Coordinated EV charging (targeting low demand periods, helping to lift minimum demand). Not reflected in demand traces
  • ELECTRIFICATION_BUS: Electrification impact on the business sector
  • ELECTRIFICATION_RES: Electrification impact on the residential sector
  • ICL: Estimated interconnector losses (to allow netting off those if you are modelling interconnector losses in the market modelling).

Subregional files

Modelling files are provided for the subregions for anyone looking to recreate AEMO’s modelling. Specifically, the following files are available (see above for explanations):

  • OPSO_MODELLING
  • PV
  • PV_TOT

These are available for 13 different reference years (2011-12 to 2023-24).

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