AEMO published stage two of the Draft 2025 Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR) on 28 February 2025.
Stage 2 focuses on the inter-related components that decarbonise the National Energy Market (NEM) such as: carbon budgets, electrification (including electric vehicles), energy efficiency and fuel switching (including hydrogen and biomethane), and considers Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) rules which are based on the Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council-endorsed ISP Review.
Key elements of the Draft 2025 IASR – Stage 2 include:
- updated assumptions on a range of major policies
- updated carbon trajectories (per scenario)
- updated domestic fuel consumption charts (per scenario)
- reduced forecasts for hydrogen (across all scenarios)
- updated Electric Vehicle (EV) forecasts, and
- proposed sensitives for the 2026 ISP.
The report leverages CSIRO’s draft multi-sectoral modelling that generates a least-cost pathway to meet each scenario’s carbon budget (according to the scenario parameters defined in Stage 1). The latest multi-sectoral modelling has resulted in a lower carbon trajectory for Progressive Change, and higher carbon trajectories for Step Change and Green Energy Exports / Green Energy Industries.
CSIRO’s multi-sectoral modelling report is an input to the Draft 2025 IASR – Stage 2 and AEMO will keep stakeholders informed as soon as it is available.
A reminder that Draft 2025 IASR – Stage 2 stakeholder feedback is welcome via written submissions due by 6.00pm (AEDT) on 31 March 2025.
(AEMO held a webinar on 18 March 2025 to discuss the report’s key messages and respond to stakeholder questions. View recording here.)
AEMO is hosting a verbal submissions session on 31 March 2025 for consumer advocates who would not otherwise provide a written submission. Consumer advocates may register here to attend.
Other stakeholders may direct inquiries to Forecasting.Planning@aemo.com.au
The final 2025 IASR will be published on 31 July 2025. For further information, please visit Draft 2025 IASR.
Draft 2025 IASR – Stage 1 release update
Released on 11 December 2024, the Draft 2025 IASR Stage 1 report provided stakeholders with an opportunity to submit feedback on the inputs, assumptions and scenarios. Written submissions closed on 11 February 2025.
AEMO received submissions from 36 stakeholders across a diverse range of sectors including: Consumer, Community, Environment or Climate Group (33%); Academic, Consultant or Individual (22%); Generator, Retailer or Developer (17%); Associations - Electricity or Gas Network (17%); Market Bodies & Participants (8%).
While many submissions focused on the scenarios’ suitability and changes that may be appropriate for the scenario collection, a high number of submissions also provided insights on various input parameters including consumer energy resources (CER), policy considerations, hydrogen, and decarbonisation.
AEMO thanks all stakeholders for their feedback.