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66490RESERVE NOTICE22/01/2019 11:23:47 AM
RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA PUBLICATION 22 January 2019
The MTPASA result published on 22 January 2019 identifies no Low Reserve Conditions in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
Please note that MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any market intervention or direction from AEMO.
For further information, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy
This notice supersedes Market Notice 66377 published on 15 January 2019.
Background
As part of a broader process of implementing the reliability standard, AEMO runs the Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MTPASA) process weekly to forecast expected unserved energy levels over a two year period. If the expected annual unserved energy exceeds the maximum level specified by the Reliability Standard, a Low Reserve Condition is identified.
For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO's website at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Stakeholder_Consultation/Consultations/Electricity_Consultations/2016/EAAP/Reliability-Standard-Implementation-Guidelines.pdf
Forecasting
AEMO
Please note that MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any market intervention or direction from AEMO.
For further information, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy
This notice supersedes Market Notice 66377 published on 15 January 2019.
Background
As part of a broader process of implementing the reliability standard, AEMO runs the Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MTPASA) process weekly to forecast expected unserved energy levels over a two year period. If the expected annual unserved energy exceeds the maximum level specified by the Reliability Standard, a Low Reserve Condition is identified.
For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO's website at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Stakeholder_Consultation/Consultations/Electricity_Consultations/2016/EAAP/Reliability-Standard-Implementation-Guidelines.pdf
Forecasting
AEMO
66489RESERVE NOTICE22/01/2019 07:43:17 AM
STPASA - Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the Victoria Region on 24/01/2019
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the Victoria region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 66486 has been updated at 0600 hrs 22/01/2019 to the following:
From 1600 hrs to 1900 hrs 24/01/2019.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1100 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 902 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
Ryan Burge
AEMO Operations
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the Victoria region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 66486 has been updated at 0600 hrs 22/01/2019 to the following:
From 1600 hrs to 1900 hrs 24/01/2019.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1100 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 902 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
Ryan Burge
AEMO Operations
66488RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY21/01/2019 08:39:47 PM
Cancellation of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV line and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV line in QLD1 due to Lightning.
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Cancellation of reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits is no longer reasonably possible. There is no longer any lightning activity in the vicinity of the following lines. Accordingly its classification has reverted to a non-credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV
Cancellation time: 21/01/2019 20:39
Constraint set(s) revoked:
I-QNI_ONE_PHASE_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NSW1-QLD1
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 66487
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Cancellation of reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits is no longer reasonably possible. There is no longer any lightning activity in the vicinity of the following lines. Accordingly its classification has reverted to a non-credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV
Cancellation time: 21/01/2019 20:39
Constraint set(s) revoked:
I-QNI_ONE_PHASE_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NSW1-QLD1
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 66487
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
66487RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY21/01/2019 07:35:35 PM
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV line and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV line in QLD1 due to Lightning.
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV
Duration: 21/01/2019 19:35 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
I-QNI_ONE_PHASE_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NSW1-QLD1
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV
Duration: 21/01/2019 19:35 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
I-QNI_ONE_PHASE_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NSW1-QLD1
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
66486RESERVE NOTICE21/01/2019 05:04:50 PM
STPASA - Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the Victoria Region on 24/01/2019
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Victoria region for the following period:
From 1530 hrs to 1600 hrs 24/01/2019.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1075 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 908 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
Ryan Burge
AEMO Operations
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Victoria region for the following period:
From 1530 hrs to 1600 hrs 24/01/2019.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1075 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 908 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
Ryan Burge
AEMO Operations
66485GENERAL NOTICE21/01/2019 05:04:15 PM
Market reporting for forecast extreme temperatures in the South Australia and Victoria regions on 24/01/2019 and 25/01/2019
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Elevated temperatures are forecast for South Australia and Victoria for the current week. Temperature forecasts, particularly Thu 24th and Fri 25th, are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. AEMO continues to work with its weather service providers to quantify and minimise forecast uncertainty.
AEMO's weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures for SA and VIC regions that are equal to or greater than the Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures:
Thu 24/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 46 degrees C at Adelaide for the Adelaide area
Fri 25/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 45 degrees C at Traralgon for the Latrobe Valley area
Also, note that elevated temperatures are forecast for the following days in the SA and VIC regions from Tue 22/01/2019 onwards.
SA:
Tue 22/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 39 degrees C at Adelaide for Adelaide area.
Wed 23/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 42 degrees C at Adelaide for Adelaide area.
VIC:
Thu 24/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 37 degrees C at Melbourne for Melbourne area.
Fri 25/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 40 degrees C at Melbourne for Melbourne area.
AEMO requests Market Participants to:
1. review the weather forecast in the local area where their generating plants are located and,
2. if required, update the generation levels in their dispatch offers consistent with the forecast temperatures.
Details on Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures can be accessed using the following link to AEMO website:
http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Related-Information/Generation-Information
Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures:
QLD - BRISBANE AREA 37 degrees C.
NSW - SYDNEY AREA 42 degrees C.
VIC - MELBOURNE AREA 41 degrees C.
SA - ADELAIDE AREA 43 degrees C.
TAS - GEORGE TOWN 30 degrees C.
BASSLINK- (Latrobe Valley Airport 43 degrees C AND GEORGE TOWN 33 degrees C)
Ryan Burge
AEMO Operations
Elevated temperatures are forecast for South Australia and Victoria for the current week. Temperature forecasts, particularly Thu 24th and Fri 25th, are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. AEMO continues to work with its weather service providers to quantify and minimise forecast uncertainty.
AEMO's weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures for SA and VIC regions that are equal to or greater than the Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures:
Thu 24/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 46 degrees C at Adelaide for the Adelaide area
Fri 25/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 45 degrees C at Traralgon for the Latrobe Valley area
Also, note that elevated temperatures are forecast for the following days in the SA and VIC regions from Tue 22/01/2019 onwards.
SA:
Tue 22/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 39 degrees C at Adelaide for Adelaide area.
Wed 23/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 42 degrees C at Adelaide for Adelaide area.
VIC:
Thu 24/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 37 degrees C at Melbourne for Melbourne area.
Fri 25/01/2019: Maximum forecast temperature 40 degrees C at Melbourne for Melbourne area.
AEMO requests Market Participants to:
1. review the weather forecast in the local area where their generating plants are located and,
2. if required, update the generation levels in their dispatch offers consistent with the forecast temperatures.
Details on Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures can be accessed using the following link to AEMO website:
http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Related-Information/Generation-Information
Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures:
QLD - BRISBANE AREA 37 degrees C.
NSW - SYDNEY AREA 42 degrees C.
VIC - MELBOURNE AREA 41 degrees C.
SA - ADELAIDE AREA 43 degrees C.
TAS - GEORGE TOWN 30 degrees C.
BASSLINK- (Latrobe Valley Airport 43 degrees C AND GEORGE TOWN 33 degrees C)
Ryan Burge
AEMO Operations
66484RESERVE NOTICE21/01/2019 02:47:38 PM
STPASA - Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the Victoria Region on 24/01/2019 and 25/01/2019
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Vic region for the following period[s]:
[1.] From 1500 hrs to 1930 hrs 24/01/2019.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1120 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 740 MW.
[2.] From 1200 hrs to 1500 hrs 25/01/2019.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1120 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 787 MW.
Danushka Sooriyadasa
AEMO Operations
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Vic region for the following period[s]:
[1.] From 1500 hrs to 1930 hrs 24/01/2019.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1120 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 740 MW.
[2.] From 1200 hrs to 1500 hrs 25/01/2019.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1120 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 787 MW.
Danushka Sooriyadasa
AEMO Operations
66483RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY20/01/2019 06:49:45 PM
Cancellation of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV line and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV line in QLD1 due to Lightning.
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Cancellation of reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits is no longer reasonably possible. There is no longer any lightning activity in the vicinity of the following lines. Accordingly its classification has reverted to a non-credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV
Cancellation time: 20/01/2019 18:49
Constraint set(s) revoked:
I-QNI_ONE_PHASE_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NSW1-QLD1
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 66482
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Cancellation of reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits is no longer reasonably possible. There is no longer any lightning activity in the vicinity of the following lines. Accordingly its classification has reverted to a non-credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV
Cancellation time: 20/01/2019 18:49
Constraint set(s) revoked:
I-QNI_ONE_PHASE_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NSW1-QLD1
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 66482
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
66482RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY20/01/2019 01:46:30 PM
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV line and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV line in QLD1 due to Lightning.
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV
Duration: 20/01/2019 13:46 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
I-QNI_ONE_PHASE_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NSW1-QLD1
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8L 330KV and Bulli Creek - Dumaresq 8M 330KV
Duration: 20/01/2019 13:46 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
I-QNI_ONE_PHASE_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NSW1-QLD1
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations