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Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the VIC region on 09/11/2024
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 09/11/2024.
Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
- MSL1 - 1745 MW
- MSL2 - 1245 MW
- MSL3 - 745 MW
The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:
1. From 1100 hrs to 1400 hrs 09/11/2024. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1488 MW at 1300 hrs.
Forecast regional demand (DEMAND50) is published in Short Term and Pre-Dispatch PASA region solution reports available on Market Data NEMWEB: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/market-data-nemweb .
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO Operations
RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA PUBLICATION 5 November 2024
AEMO declares LRC as per clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER) for the following region(s) and periods:
-- November 2024, January to March 2025 in Victoria when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.
Reliability risks in New South Wales are forecast to above the Reliability Standard for the period between November 2024 and November 2025, but it is impacted by transmission outages and reclassifications. As these outages and reclassifications are not considered as part of a reliability incident as per clause 3.9.3C of the NER, AEMO is not declaring LRC at this time for NSW.
This MT PASA has been updated to be consistent with the Generation Information published on 31 October 2024.
MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention, see: https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy
This notice supersedes Market Notice 119617 published on 29 October 2024.
Background
As part of a broader process of implementing the Reliability Standard, AEMO runs the Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MTPASA) process weekly to forecast expected unserved energy levels over a two year period. If the expected annual unserved energy exceeds the maximum level specified by the Reliability Standard, a Low Reserve Condition is identified.
For more information about how AEMO implements the Reliability Standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines available on AEMO's website at https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National.
Forecasting
AEMO
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV line and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: NSW1
Lines: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV
Duration: 04/11/2024 14:27 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Forecast Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the VIC Region on 05/11/2024
Forecast Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the VIC Region on 05/11/2024
Update to Market Notice 119743 - AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC on 05/11/2024.
Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1258 MW at 1300 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
MSL1 - 1320 MW
MSL2 - 820 MW
MSL3 - 320 MW
The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period[s]:
From 1200 hrs 05/11/2024 to 1330 hrs 05/11/2024.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
[EventId:202411041405_NRM_NSW1_VIC1_started] NEGRES CONSTRAINT NRM_NSW1_VIC1 started operating from 04 November 2024 14:05
Issued by Australian Energy Market Operator Ltd at 1405 hrs on 4 November 2024
ACTUAL NEGATIVE SETTLEMENT RESIDUES - NSW to VIC - 4 November 2024.
Electricity Market outcomes have resulted in the accumulation of negative settlement residues that have exceeded the allowable negative residue threshold for the NSW to VIC directional interconnector.
The negative residue constraint set NRM_NSW1_VIC1 commenced operating from 1405 hrs on 4 November 2024.
This constraint set contains an equation with the following interconnectors on the LHS:
VIC1-NSW1
The RHS of the constraint equation may be adjusted to manage residues.
This is an AEMO autogenerated Market Notice.
STPASA - Update for the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 07/11/2024
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 119851 has been updated at 1300 hrs to the following:
From 1700 hrs to 1900 hrs 07/11/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 535 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 281 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO estimates the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 0600 hrs on 06/11/2024.
AEMO Operations
STPASA - Update for the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 07/11/2024
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 119849 has been updated at 1300 hrs to the following:
1. From 1300 hrs to 1330 hrs 07/11/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1191 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 963 MW.
2. From 1430 hrs to 1930 hrs 07/11/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 730 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 269 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO estimates the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 0600 hrs on 06/11/2024.
AEMO Operations
Foreseeable AEMO intervention under clause 4.8.5A (a) of the NER in SA region
Foreseeable AEMO intervention under clause 4.8.5A (a) of the NER in SA region
AEMO has identified a foreseeable circumstance that may require an AEMO intervention event in the SA region from 0700 hrs 05/11/2024.
The foreseeable circumstance requiring the need for intervention is Voltage.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Cancellation of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bayswater - Mt Piper No.5A3 500kV line and Wollar - Mt Piper No.5A5 500kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.
Cancellation of reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits is no longer reasonably possible. There is no longer any lightning activity in the vicinity of the following lines. Accordingly its classification has reverted to a non-credible contingency event.
Region: NSW1
Lines: Bayswater - Mt Piper No.5A3 500kV and Wollar - Mt Piper No.5A5 500kV
Cancellation time: 04/11/2024 13:09
Constraint set(s) revoked:
NONE
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 119855
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations