Current inputs, assumptions and scenarios

AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).

AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. Confidential information is withheld from public release, but is incorporated in the modelling conducted, if necessary, to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.

AEMO is now consulting on minor updates to assumptions relevant to annual supply adequacy assessments of the NEM and eastern and south-eastern Australian gas market. Details of this draft Forecasting Assumptions Update is accessed at the following link.

2022 Assumptions Update consultation page

2020-21 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios  

AEMO completed its consultation on Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios (IASR) in July 2021, taking into consideration feedback provided on the Draft IASR published in December 2020, as well as from several stakeholder workshops and webinars. The 2020-21 IASR will be used to develop the 2022 ISP. Details of the consultation can be accessed below.

2020-21 IASR consultation page

AEMO also consulted on its Draft Transmission Cost Report which, forms part of the 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report. Details of the consultation can be accessed below.

Transmission Cost Report Consultation

The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions currently applied in AEMO’s Forecasting and Planning activities.

Supporting materials for 2021 (including for the 2022 ISP)

Demand trace data

Regional files

The files below provides draft regional demand traces, by components for each NEM region for both 10% and 50% probability of exceedance (POE) maximum demands and for 11 different reference years (2010-11 till 2020-21) by scenario.

Each of the zipped regional files includes:

  • OPSO: Contains half-hourly regional demand traces for operational demand (demand after the impact of rooftop PV and PVNSG)
  • OPSO_PVLITE: Contains half-hourly regional demand traces for operational demand (demand before the impact of rooftop PV and PVNSG)
  • OPSO_MODELLING: Version of demand used in AEMO’s market modelling. OPSO_MODELLING = OPSO – ICL + EVVPP.
  • PV: Contains half hourly regional generation traces for rooftop PV
  • PV_TOT: Contains half hourly regional generation traces for all embedded PV, including rooftop PV and PVNSG. Generation from PVNSG can be found as PV_NSG = PV_TOT – PV.
  • EV: Contains half hourly regional aggregate electric vehicle charging
  • ESS: Contains half hourly regional aggregate customer installed battery charging/discharging. ESS is capturing the net impact of battery storages (charge – discharge). To remove ESS from OPSO you would subtract it: OPSO - ESS
  • VTOH: Contains half hourly regional aggregate discharging from electric vehicles to homes (only used in the Step change scenario).
  • EVVPP: Coordinated EV charging (targeting low demand periods, helping to lift minimum demand). Not reflected in demand traces
  • ELECTRIFICATION_BUS: Electrification impact on the business sector
  • ELECTRIFICATION_RES: Electrification impact on the residential sector
  • ICL: Estimated interconnector losses (to allow netting off those if you are modelling interconnector losses in the market modelling).

Subregional files

In AEMO’s ISP modelling, Queensland and New South Wales were split into subregions be better capture the impacts of intraregional transmission bottlenecks. Modelling files are provided for these subregions for anyone looking to recreate AEMO’s modelling. Specifically, the following files are available (see above for explanations):

  • OPSO_MODELLING
  • PV
  • PV_TOT

These are available for 10 different reference years (2010-11 till 2019-20) for the following subregions:

  • New South Wales: Northern NSW (NNSW), Central NSW (CNSW), Sydney-Newcastle-Wollongong (SNW) and Southern NSW (SNSW).
  • Queensland: Central-North Queensland (CNQ), Gladstone Grid (GG) and South Queensland (SQ).

2020 Inputs, assumptions and scenarios

2019-20 Inputs, assumptions and scenarios

The following documents detail the scenarios, inputs and assumptions used in Forecasting and Planning activities in 2019-20, notably the 2020 ISP.

Archive for inputs and assumptions workbook

Archive Supporting materials

Reference materials used to support the development of the inputs and assumptions.

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