2024 Forecasting Assumptions Update Consultation

Timeline

Key contact

Email: forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au

Matter under consultation

AEMO delivers a range of forecasting and planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM). This consultation relates to the updated assumptions to apply in the Reliability Forecast for the NEM, prepared in accordance with the Australian Energy Regulator's Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines (FBPG).

AEMO prepares this draft 2024 Forecasting Assumptions Update (Assumptions Update) report, and an accompanying draft Assumptions Workbook which contains the updated data. This report complements the 2023 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR), finalised in July 2023.

This draft 2024 Forecasting Assumptions Update uses the latest information available to update assumptions specifically relevant to the reliability assessment for the 2024 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).
The updates include (but are not limited to):

• Updated Consumer Energy Resources, including Electric Vehicles
• Draft 2023-24 GenCost report (CSIRO)

Submissions are due to forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au by 9 February 2024. Please note that submissions will be published, other than confidential material, as per AEMO’s Consultation submission guidelines.  

Consumer advocates can register here to attend a joint verbal submission session from 3-4pm AEDT on 7 February 2024.

Alongside the AEMO’s 2024 Forecasting Assumptions Update, CSIRO have published a draft 2023-24 GenCost report for consultation. GenCost is a collaboration between CSIRO and AEMO to deliver an annual process of updating the costs of electricity generation, energy storage and hydrogen production with a strong emphasis on stakeholder engagement.

The 2023-24 GenCost report highlights that globally, renewables (led by wind and solar PV) are the fastest growing energy source, and the role of electricity is expected to increase materially over the next 30 years with electricity technologies presenting some of the lowest cost abatement opportunities.

Feedback on GenCost should also be sent to forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au by COB 9 February 2024. Feedback received will be used to improve content and produce a final GenCost 2023-24 report in the second quarter of 2024.

Draft 2023/24 GenCost webinar