2024 Consultation on changes to Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines

Timeline

The publication of the draft report commences AEMO’s expedited consultation on changes to the Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines (Guidelines) (the proposal) under the National Electricity Rules (NER). 

The majority of the proposed changes relate to the underlying Forecasting Uncertainty Measure (FUM) model and its inputs as follows:

• Replacing the current Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model with an alternative in-house Machine Learning (ML) model using quantile regression (QR) to calculate the FUM.
• Inclusion of a single input variable (time-of-day) to calculate the FUM. 

Both proposed changes would not impact upon the intent of the current Guidelines. The main changes required to the Guidelines is the detail surrounding the model and inputs used to create the FUM value as it currently stands, as outlined in Appendix A of the Guidelines. In addition, minor drafting updates throughout the Guidelines have been included for consistency and accuracy, to reflect changes resulting from Five-Minute Settlement (5MS) and Semi-Scheduled Generator’s available capacity. These proposed changes were presented at the Electricity Wholesale Consultative Forum (EWCF) on 20 February 2024, and the presentation slides will be made available on the AEMO website.