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Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for Tasmania
AEMO has prepared this page to provide information about its transmission connection point forecasts for Tasmania.
AEMO publishes these connection point forecasts in line with clause 5.20.6(b) of the National Electricity Rules, as part of its national transmission planner (NTP) functions.Disclaimer
AEMO has made every effort to ensure the quality of the information in this publication but cannot guarantee that information, forecasts and assumptions are accurate, complete or appropriate for your circumstances.
This publication does not include all of the information that an investor, participant or potential participant in the National Electricity Market might require, and does not amount to a recommendation of any investment.
Anyone proposing to use the information in this publication (including information and reports from third parties) should independently verify and check its accuracy, completeness and suitability for purpose, and obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts.
Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, AEMO and its officers, employees and consultants involved in the preparation of this publication:
- make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this publication; and
- are not liable (whether by reason of negligence or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or other matters contained in or derived from this document, or any omissions from it, or in respect of a person’s use of the information in this publication.
Published: March 2019
Please note: these forecasts are based on information available to AEMO as at 22 February 2019, although AEMO has endeavoured to incorporate more recent information where practical.
This page uses many terms that have meanings defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER). The NER meanings are adopted unless otherwise specified. Other key terms used are listed in the Glossary of the AEMO Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016.
AEMO acknowledges TasNetworks’ support, co-operation, and contribution in providing data and information used in these forecasts.
- Aggregate winter maximum demand is greater than summer, as Tasmania is a winter peaking state.
The forecasts are reconciled to AEMO’s 2018 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, which incorporates the effects of demand due to forecast population growth, economic and demographic outlook, electricity prices, energy efficiency and performance, and small-scale embedded technologies.
2019 connection point results and insights
Refer to the dynamic interface for detailed information on individual connection points.
Figures 1 and 2 show the winter and summer annual growth rates based on the compound average rate of changes over the 10-year forecasting period in Tasmania. Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.
Figure 1: Tasmania 10% POE winter 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019 to 2028
Figure 2: Tasmania 10% POE summer 10-year average annual growth rates, 2018-19 to 2027-28
Table 1 lists the drivers of large forecast changes (2% or greater) in connection points.
Table 1: Drivers at connection points with average annual increase or decrease greater than 2%
Season Forecast maximum demand increase greater than 2% Forecast maximum demand decrease greater than 2% Winter maximum demand
Summer maximum demand
Triabunna: Due to advised increases in industrial demand.
Emu Bay: Due to advised increases in industrial demand.
Kermandie: Due to future block loads for aquaculture industry expansion.
St Marys: Due to historical decline in demand and resulting forecast trend.
Dynamic interface An Excel workbook with the following information for each transmission connection point:
- Historical and forecast maximum demand (MD), including 10% POE and 50% POE, for active power.
- Coincident and non-coincident values.
- High-level commentary.
- The option to export all forecast and historical data.
Reactive power forecast spreadsheet Separate spreadsheet for reactive power forecasts at each transmission connection point, providing complementary information for power system studies. Interactive planning map The interactive map complements AEMO’s planning publications to enhance readability and clarity. The map contains various layers, including layers displaying forecasts and planning information. Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016 The current AEMO transmission connection point forecasting methodology outlines the process through which the forecasts were developed.
Archive of Previous Tasmanian Forecasts and Reports20182018: Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for Tasmania – forecasts developed by AEMO20172017: Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for Tasmania – forecasts developed by AEMO20162016: Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Report for Tasmania – forecasts developed by AEMO2015