Australian Energy Market Operator

WA Gas Statement of Opportunities

In this section
- In this section
  
  WA GBB historical data analysis

The Western Australian (WA) Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) is an annual report published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) that provides gas market participants and other stakeholders with information about the WA gas industry. It presents forecasts of WA domestic gas demand and potential supply over a 10-year period, including an overview of gas infrastructure and emerging issues affecting the WA gas industry.

The WA GSOO aims to include information and assessments relating to medium and long term natural gas supply and demand and natural gas transmission and storage capacity, as defined in subrule 2(2)(b) of the Gas Service Information (GSI) Rules. Its content is further defined in rule 104 of the GSI Rules.

5-yearly review – WA Gas Statement of Opportunities

The WA GSOO was first published by the Independent Market Operator (IMO) in 2013. In 2015, certain IMO functions transferred to AEMO, including the responsibility for developing and publishing the WA GSOO. AEMO has published the WA GSOO from 2015 onwards. Modifications have been made annually to improve the modelling methodology and forecasting accuracy, to increase engagement with stakeholders, and to address issues of importance to the WA gas industry.

Rule 105 of the GSI Rules requires that AEMO must, at least once in every 5-year period, conduct a review of the GSOO, and that this review must be carried out in consultation with Gas Market Participants and gas industry groups.

The first 5-yearly review was completed in July 2018.

Five-yearly review of the WA GSOO final report (0.5 MB, pdf)

WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - December 2018

WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - December 2018 (1.9 MB, pdf)

Supporting Documents

WA GSOO Data Register - December 2018 (16.9 MB, xlsx)
Gas Demand Methodology Report by Marsden Jacob Associates: Annual gas demand forecasts for Western Australia (2.1 MB, pdf)
Media release and podcast

The key findings of the 2018 WA GSOO are:

Potential gas supply exceeds forecast domestic gas demand over the 10-year outlook period (2019-28), however prospective gas supply sources are needed in all scenarios as early as 2022 to ensure there is sufficient supply to serve the WA domestic gas market.
- Gas supply declines in all scenarios through 2021, in line with reserve depletion at existing production facilities.
- As early as 2022, potential gas supply from existing and under construction supply sources is expected to be insufficient to meet low, base, or high forecast gas demand. Prospective supply sources are expected to fill this gap. Market tightness at this time may be alleviated by acceleration of production from existing processing facilities or withdrawals from gas storage facilities.

Committed and prospective supply sources have grown since 2017 and will be important to maintaining the gas demand-supply balance over the outlook period.
- In 2019, facilities under construction will commence, adding 240 terajoules (TJ) a day in capacity.
- Four prospective supply projects are in the planning phase, including Waitsia Stage Two, Scarborough, Equus, and Browse. The first of these is planned to commence in 2021. The maximum supply volume from these supply sources is estimated to be 485 TJ/day, if they commence by 2028.
- To meet the base gas demand forecast in 2028, around 276 TJ/day from new gas supply sources will be required.

A positive outlook for commodities over the 2019-28 period is expected to lift gas demand, as new gas-consuming mining and minerals processing projects commence.
- Committed projects are estimated to add 50 TJ/day to forecast gas demand in the low, base, and high scenarios.
- The 10-year forecasts for commodities production and prices have strengthened from the forecasts used in the 2017 WA GSOO, particularly for nickel, zinc, copper, and lithium. Due to the continued expected growth in the WA resources sector and secondary processing, a further 57 TJ/day from 13 prospective gas demand projects has been added to the high demand scenario.

Renewable energy generation entering the electricity market is expected to change the WA generation mix and influence gas demand for gas-powered generation of electricity (GPG).
- As a result of the changing mix, some generation capacity may no longer be economic to be dispatched, under all scenarios. In the base scenario, gas demand from GPG is forecast to be higher (~17 TJ/day) in 2028 than if the existing generation mix was unchanged.
- AEMO modelled an additional scenario for WA seeking to achieve a 26% emissions reduction (on 2005 levels) before 2030 in the South West interconnected system (SWIS) . In this scenario, gas consumed by GPG in the SWIS is forecast to grow between 2021 and 2023, after some coal-fired generation is no longer dispatched from late 2021. This projected growth is then dampened between 2023 and 2025 as further renewable generation comes online. GPG gas use is forecast to return to growth from 2026, when additional coal-fired generation ceases to be dispatched under the scenario assumptions.

Previous WA GSOO reports and supporting documents

Edition	Publication	Executive summary and key findings	Related documents
December 2017	WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - December 2017 (2.0 MB, pdf)	See 2017 WA Gas Statement of Opportunities report	WA GSOO Data Register - December 2017 (12.7 MB, xlsx) Gas Demand Methodology Report by Marsden Jacobs Associates: The Development of Annual and Peak Gas Demand Forecasts for the Western Australian Gas Market (3.4 MB, pdf)
December 2016	WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - December 2016 (5.0 MB)	See 2016 WA Gas Statement of Opportunities report	WA GSOO Data Register - December 2016 (15.0 MB) Stakeholder Briefing Presentation - 12 December 2016 (419 KB)
November 2015	WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - November 2015 (2.8 MB)	WA GSOO Executive summary and key findings - November 2015 (410 KB)	WA GSOO Data Register - November 2015 (1.8 MB)
December 2014	WA Gas Statement of Opportunities December 2014 (5.3MB)	WA GSOO Executive Summary and Key Findings December 2014 (575 KB)	WA GSOO data register December 2014 (4.0 MB) 2014 December GSOO Stakeholder Presentation (319 KB)
January 2014	WA Gas Statement of Opportunities January 2014 (9.7MB)	WA GSOO Executive Summary January 2014 (714 KB)	WA GSOO Data Register (1.9 MB) Stakeholder Briefing Slides – 4 March 2014 (475 KB) EMF Test Slides – 3 December 2013 (424 KB)
July 2013	WA Gas Statement of Opportunities July 2013 (2.5MB)	WA GSOO Executive Summary July 2013 (507 KB)	Stakeholder Briefing – 7 October 2013 (1.2 MB)